Better said, they view this case from a different angle. They have a different point of view from ours.

- 07 / 05 / 2008 16:50

The AKP's (Justice and Development Party) closure case evokes more and more interest in the European Union's center in Brussels and in the capitals of the 27 EU countries. At the present moment, Europeans seem to be confused about the whole issue.

Better said, they view this case from a different angle. They have a different point of view from ours. I recommend you to read without fail Ali Yurttagül's article that appeared in the most recent issue of the "Kriter." It's an excellent analysis that reflects the actual climate of the European Parliament. Yurttagül also underlines the fact that the European Union sees the AKP case as a fight for democracy, and not as an operation to save the secular regime, as some circles in Turkey believe it to be. There are two reasons for this point of view:

  One of these reasons is that Europe perceives the AKP as a progressive party that's making efforts to implement the Copenhagen Criteria. They are aware of the religious side of the AKP as well as its approach to religion, but they don't think there's any concrete evidence of the AKP's intention to transform Turkey into a religious state. They qualify the AKP as a Muslim party, but one that's also carrying Turkey to Europe.

Europe doesn't accept the theory that the AKP has a secret agenda, regardless of whether we accept that view or not. According to the European notion of democracy, there's nothing reasonable about shutting down a party – which doesn't promote violence, which has been elected with a 47 percent majority and has also been ruling the country for five years – on the sole evidence of its political statements.

  The second reason is the EU's conviction that Turkey has always been ruled by the upper classes, and that no political party rejected by them will ever get the chance to acquire or remain in power. That's why Europe views the AKP's closure case as a fight between those who are for and against democracy, rather than an attempt to protect the secular system. 

  However, there's another interesting development. EU countries are beginning to emphasize secularism more and more. In other words, they also question some of the AKP's applications. They are lending a more interested ear to the secular sectors in Turkey. More and more questions are being asked.

  This is a relatively new development, but it's spreading fast. That's why I wish to speculate as to the EU's reactions if the court were to decide for the AKP's closure.

  The most probable scenario says that the European Parliament will back the AKP and will decide to freeze its relations with Turkey at once if that party is closed. Solidarity is a part of this parliament's nature. You'll see that almost every session of the European Parliament will involve a debate on Turkey, and the parliament will ask the EU Council, in other words the 27 countries, to freeze their relations with Turkey.

How will the European Commission react?:

  If we go by what Commission President Barroso and Commissioner for Enlargement Rehn said during their last visit, we can easily conclude that the commission will react against the closure of the AKP.

However, it's not likely that the commission will recommend to freeze the relations, for the real function of the commission is to carry EU-Turkey relations to a positive end, in other words, make Turkey a full EU member. For that reason, the commission will list the pros and cons of freezing the relations and will let the council make the final decision. 

 Let's now get to what this final decision could be. Although it would be very difficult to predict the council's decision at this point, we could start by discussing the clues that we already have.The council's decision will be very important in the sense that it will determine the fate of Turkey's European adventure. If they decide to suspend membership negotiations, it will be extremely difficult to resume them, even if our relations are restored at a later date. 

This decision to suspend negotiations requires a two-thirds majority (18 countries), while to resume them will require a unanimous vote. In such a situation, member countries that have various expectations from Turkey will present us with a series of bills.

They'll ask us to compromise in a great number of topics that will range from the Cyprus issue to the alleged Armenian "genocide." Ankara cannot be expected to fall in with those expectations. Therefore, the suspension of these negotiations will mean that Turkey will never be able to resume its seat at the negotiation table.

This will also split up the council. The suspension of Turkey's accession talks will remove the EU's right to impose anything on Turkey. Turkey will take no notice of anything that the EU Commission or the EU Council or the EU Parliament might have to say at that stage.Turkey will move away from Europe. This possibility might suit the purposes of some circles in Turkey.

You can be sure, however, that the political and economic damage that the country is bound to suffer sooner or later will be extremely difficult to repair. Many countries in Europe and especially the Greece-Greek Cyprus duo will not want this to happen. You'll see that even countries like France, Germany and Austria that are the most fervent opposers of Turkey's membership will abstain from voting.

At that point, Washington will be another capital to affect the decision. The White House attitude will influence the attitudes of an important number of EU countries. Taking into consideration all these factors, it would be wrong to conclude that Europe will suspend its relations with us as soon as the Constitutional Court decides to close down the AKP.

The factors that will play a determining role will range from the legal grounds cited by the court to the international conjuncture at that time and the attitudes of the member countries. In the end, it's hard to say anything now. The only certainty is that we fail to really understand Europe in the same way that it fails to really understand us. …………

  The translation of M.A.Birand's column was provided by Nuran İnanç. (nuraninanc@gmail.com)