Turkish daily's columnist Ismail Kucukkaya says the balance between President Abdullah Gul and PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be key following AK Party's possible closure.

Competitors or partners? - 15 / 05 / 2008 15:05

Let's consider the political balances following a possible closure decision against the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

At this point, the balance between President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be key, besides many other factors. If the Constitutional Court doesn't decide to close the AK Party, the current balance will continue.

This could mean a serious problem between the Presidential Palace and the Prime Ministry and a possible split before Gul's term in office ends.

 Following a closure decision, the balance between the parties which seems to have been implicitly accepted following last year's presidential elections would face a critical test. I've said many times that although there are great differences between Erdogan and Gul in the way they practice politics, their characters and even their way of approaching life, basically, I don't believe that there's competition between them.

Claims that Erdogan and Gul will part ways during the closure case and speculation that the AK Party will be split for this reason have grown louder. But I see very little chance of this happening.

Erdogan might have been hurt that Gul ran for the presidency. I agree that Erdogan was expecting Gul to give up his candidacy by himself, but it didn't happen.

Later, Gul faulted the way Erdogan handled the headscarf issue in terms of timing and methodology. I believe Gul thinks that the issue could have been handled in a less confrontational way.

As it has been mentioned many times, I should mention the talk of a chill between Emine Erdoğan and Hayrunnisa Gul, the wives of Erdogan and Gul. But this issue concerns the two families, and they can solve this problem using a 'minimal relationship,' just like business partners solve similar problems. Here the important thing is preventing an emotional, personal conflict through the rationality of doing a business.

But if we're waiting for a way out for the AKP and Turkey, we should admit that Gul and Erdogan act in partnership and cooperate with each other in their opinions and actions, and act in line with their shared roles. I know that some people disagree with me, but they're wrong, as the AKP would never give this up.

If the Constitutional Court closesd the AKP and banned Erdogan from politics, obviously this would favor Gul. Erdogan would be out of the political arena for some time, but Gul would stay in the Presidential Palace (a non-political office) and his stature would grow.

In addition, this situation can't be discussed as part of the competition between Erdogan and Gul. My impression from many political incidents shows that Gul and Erdogan will put their heads together, direct the post-AKP period together, and make careful calculations. And you, do you think that Erdogan and Gul are competitors or partners?