Turkey is placed into a critical position which is approved by all parties and is willing to make a traffic controls at the most dangerous cross-roads of the international politics

- 05 / 08 / 2008 11:14

Cengiz Candar

It is time for us to leave the Ankara agenda behind and forget about the “closure case.” That consumed enough of our time anyway. And it was concluded. The attempt to overthrow the government was thwarted in accordance with the desire of the international community. The upcoming period is critical because Turkey's profile in international politics will be distinctive. The “cross-roads” of international politics is the Middle East as usual. And the profile of the “functional” in Middle East diplomacy inevitably becomes more apparent in international politics.  

  Syria and Iran

  Turkey will polish its profile in Middle East diplomacy depending on how fast it leaves behind the plots against the government. Two consecutive developments give early signs of this:

  1. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the Aegean resort of Bodrum the other day

  2. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will meet his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gül next week in Istanbul on a “working visit.”

   Ironically enough, when politics move outside Ankara, let's say in Bodrum or in Istanbul, Turkey's functionality increases!

  Syria now is acting as the “wild card” in Middle East politics. The U.S. policy of isolation of Syria, which included the overthrow of the “Baath minority regime,” flunked five years after the Iraq war ended. Al-Assad now takes the stage in international politics. The Syrian leader a short while ago made an appearance in the West and attended the Union for the Mediterranean inauguration in Paris. France, though backing Washington in this “isolation policy,” extended a glad hand to the Syrian president.

  Al-Assad owes his “increasing importance” and “rising profile” to the “indirect talks” between Syria and Israel with the mediation of Turkey. “Orchestrated” by Turkey contacts Bashar had with Israel to “resume talks” have received the support of the “international community.” As Russia tries to open up to Damascus again, the Gulf countries -- Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait -- have begun to pour money into Syria. This “rapprochement” in a way has proved the failure of the U.S. policy to isolate Damascus and pointed out the steps United States has taken in the direction of its strategic interests.  

  Pushing Syria away from Iran

  The Gulf countries livening up for Damascus is because of the increasing Iranian influence disturbing all Sunni regimes in the Middle East. These Sunni Arab regimes, ironically again, are trying to push Syria away from Iran, for the very same reasons Israel has. In the eye of Israel, Iran is the number one threat, so is it for the Sunni Arab regimes in the region, though they decline to announce it openly.

  It's been devised that the better the alienation of the Syrian leg of the “Syria-Iran axis” having a share in the regional balance from Tehran, the better they can prevent the “Iranian influence” that has been felt even in the Mediterranean and that has caused enormous pressure on the Gulf countries. In this frame, Turkey is like a “safety valve” of the international community to fend off “Iranian influence,” although Turkey disavows the definition. For Syria, the priority is to get across the “international isolation” and for the recognition and guarantee of its legitimacy by Washington. The litmus test is that al-Assad seems eager to sit at the table with Israel.

   Turkey, on the other side, is being placed right in the middle of this mechanism. The role Turkey plays in this sense both serves the interests of the “international system” and overlaps with its “will.” Specialized in the “Byzantine games and diplomacy” of the Middle East, Syrians, however, do not seem in a hurry. As for everyone else, they too are waiting for the result of the U.S. presidential elections: a new “boss” at the White House. That is to say, Syrians are taking steps to take the stage in international politics, on one side, and not rushing to sit at the table for one-on-one talks with Israel in a way to open up a brand new page with United States on the other. Therefore they keep the “Iranian card” in hand, the “trump card” in Lebanon and maintain support to Hamas and Hezbollah. For this reason, friction with the U.S. continues. The Erdoğan-al-Assad meeting needs to be read within this framework.  

  Ahmedinajad's visit

  How about the Iranian president paying a “working visit” to a NATO country, though not to the capital? I said previously that the “5+1 team.” consisting of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany, should be perceived as “5+1+1” with Turkey's voluntary participation. Negotiations over the suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program between Iran and “5+1” have reached a critical stage.

  If talks head to a dead-end, the “fourth phase” of international sanctions against Iran will be launched. What is more important is the possibility of going back to a “tension environment” with Iran to increase the pressure by the “American hawks.” Iran, just like Syria, is not in a rush for “conciliation”. It does wait for the result of the U.S. presidential elections and keeps the ball in midfield. Is there a “timing mistake” being made? It is not easy to see this for the moment.

  For this reason, Gül's involvement in the “5+1+1” and his meeting with Ahmedinajad in Istanbul is about the “agenda” and the “timeframe.” Neither Americans, who sat at the table with Iranians in Geneva for a short time ago, nor Europeans, who have always prioritized diplomacy, have anything against an Ahmedinajad visit to Istanbul.

  The important thing is that Turkey is placed into a critical position which is approved by all parties and is willing to make traffic controls at the most dangerous cross-roads of international politics, so as to prevent a bloody accident. If the “fine-tuning” is achieved, the result will be a “win-win” situation for Turkey.