The Georgian-Russian conflict has brought many global problems to the surface.

- 18 / 08 / 2008 08:39

Beril Dedeoglu

 The tension between Russia and the US could come to the edge of mutual nuclear deterrence. The US and Poland signed a deal on missile defense, and Russia is about to arm the nuclear missiles carried by its Baltic Sea naval forces.

It might not come to a nuclear war, but rather an atmosphere of tense competition. In addition, while the US and Russia are both happy to find a 'real' enemy to legitimize their actions, difficult days lie ahead for countries caught in the middle. Turkey is one of those countries, and one vexing issue concerns the Black Sea.

As you may remember, the US requested to use Turkish territory as a staging ground for its March 2003 invasion of Iraq, but Turkey refused. But when the issue was still being debated, the US apparently believed the answer would be yes, and so its ships were poised just off our Mediterranean coast, ready to unload their equipment. At around the same time, the US started to conclude that the Eastern Black Sea coast would be a good place for its operations.

While the Mediterranean is a justifiable arena for the Iraq operation, it is harder to use Iraq to explain a Black Sea presence. At that time, people thought that the US would attack Iran, but later we saw that the US was trying to put military pressure on Russia in the Black Sea.

 Even if military ships could get to the Black Sea via Romania, the Turkish Straits are obviously the most important passage. At that time, the US requested to use the Straits and thus changed the regime as defined in the Montreux Convention. Montreux restricts the passage of US military ships to the Black Sea and also Russian passage (in the other direction) to the Mediterranean and once Turkey violates this, nobody can say how this will end up being used in the future. Before the war in Iraq, Turkey rejected the US request, and Russia welcomed this, as it blocked a US presence in the Black Sea.

But now, due to the conflict in Georgia, the issue has come up again. What's more, this time the US requests are more persuasive, as they place the mission of protecting an ally like Georgia on Turkey. In other words, the US is asking Turkey to take a risk with Russia over Georgia and wants it to open up passage to the Black Sea, no matter how.

One might ask if the US has to have ships on every sea. This request is extremely provocative for Russia, as it endangers the very basis for its keeping relations with Turkey peaceful. So it's vitally important for Turkey. On the other hand, for example, northern Iraq is also vitally important for Turkey, and the US contribution to our recent cross-border operations and help to hinder talk of 'independence' are undeniable. In Georgia, where two players are now meeting, Turkey is about to lose its basis for working with the US in the south and Russia in the north. This could force Turkey to make a choice. I hope Russia will be able to make the US abandon this push, and Turkey will be able to explain to Washington why its request is problematic